The Jobless Recovery is Complete

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 It has been several years of watching millions of people chase the few jobs out there but that is changing in a hurry and permanently. Early November numbers indicate that 321,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy. Revisions for September and October show that 44,000 more jobs than had been estimated were actually added. 2014 is turning out to be the biggest employment growth year since 1999. Unemployment Will Remain Low Within the next couple of years, the concern will shift from unemployment to labor shortages. Baby boomers continue retiring at an unprecedented rate. More than a quarter million Americans turn 65 every month. Many remained in the workforce during the recession because they saw their Wall Street invested retirement accounts shrink. Wall Street has recovered and these seniors are now feeling more confident about leaving the workforce. Only about 17% of baby boomers have retired to date, meaning a lot of jobs will become available in the near term future. The peak hiring of the millennial generation has passed meaning fewer people will be entering the workforce. As soon as next year, those born between 1981 and the early 2000s will become the majority of the workforce. They will soon be earning more money and have increased purchasing power across the entire economic spectrum, including homes. What This Means for Real Estate The shrinking workforce and millennials becoming dominate in the economy creates two significant changes in the residential real estate market. First, wages for these first time homebuyers are going up. Although the millennial generation has shown a preference for inner city apartment renting, this should change as their wages increase and they become more family orientated. In the early 2020s, many more first time buyers are expected to enter the market. However, not in the numbers that baby boomers once bought at. In addition, as baby boomer age, many will move out of the family home and into some type of senior housing. This will create an abundant market of existing houses. The second major change coming is that interest rates are going to start going up. The Federal Reserve has been artificially holding interest rates down to stimulate the economy. With unemployment down and wages heading up this artificial stimulation is about to end. Most experts now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates beginning the summer of 2015. Exactly how this will affect real estate isn’t completely clear. While the raising income of millenials will absorb some of this increase in interest rates the increase will certainly lock some of the younger generation out of the marketplace. The banks have also been easing access to mortgages lately. If this continues, it’s likely to add more fuel to the real estate market. 2015 very likely will be a year of strong growth. The Real Estate Future With optimism comes a tendency for many to over react. A building and investing cycle is on the horizon. If investors and builders are overly optimistic, this could lead to another cycle of boom and bust. Real estate is always a market of supply and demand. Hopefully, we’ve learned from the past and will keep supply and demand in balance to create a stable market going forward. The real estate market also has several moving influences pushing it in several different directions. Currently there are some major forces at work. While another major event like another recession could change everything, right now the future of real estate is promising.

Thoughts on Real Estate Investing

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Whether you’re a seasoned professional or a novice investor there are fundamentals that you should always be paying attention to when investing in real estate. The fundamentals for beginners may be second nature to experienced investors but they aren’t to the beginner. The beginner needs to keep these in mind every step in the process of making his or her first purchase and sale.

Money can be made in any type of real estate market but it takes different strategies that change on a regular basis. There are two basic investment strategies. One is to buy and hold as rentals and the other buy and flip as quickly as possible. Within those two basic strategies are many other options. Today, one of the better buy and hold strategies is the lease option where you hold for a few years but have a plan to sell to the renter at a future date. For those wanting to flip houses, being able to owner finance them (even using other people’s money) is a great strategy. Both of these strategies are working well today because of the tough lending qualifications and because so many people have damaged credit scores coming out of the recession.

Real Estate Investing for Beginners

First and foremost, have an exist strategy. Never buy a house just because you can get it at a good discount. Know exactly what you are going to do with it once you own it. It’s also preferable to have a plan “B” and a plan “C”. Once you have an exit strategy, join an investment club if you haven’t already. Decide on a couple of experienced members that you trust and possibly use the exit strategy you’ve decided on. Invite them to lunch. Explain your strategy to them and ask them to punch as many holes in it as they can. Use the information you learn to improve your plan.

Expert advice for beginners is invaluable. An example of a big mistake one beginner was advised not to make involved a double lot. The beginner had found a double lot at a deep discount in a lower to middle income subdivision. He saw a huge opportunity to buy the lot and then go through the permit process to subdivide it with the intention of more than doubling his investment by selling two individual lots at retail. When he discussed his plan with an expert, the expert suggested that before making the purchase he first look into his ability to subdivide the property. When the beginner did, he learned that it could not be subdivided because of a wildlife habitat issue. The only use the property was suitable for was building a small mansion in the middle of low-end neighborhood. Obviously not a good investment strategy.

Real Estate Investing for the Experienced

If you’re at the top of your game, the best thing you can do to stay there is remain humble. Lack of humility is the biggest problem any businessperson can cause for them self. People simply don’t like doing business with someone that is arrogant. The best deals won’t be made available to you. When you do find a decent deal, negotiations won’t go in your favor when you portray yourself as always coming out on top. Stay humble and you’ll do much better.

Being humble includes offering your experience and knowledge to beginners and others less experienced than yourself. Don’t think of them as competitors and blow off their requests for help. There are plenty of deals for everyone. Occasionally, taking the time to thoroughly think through the strategic basics will also help keep you at the top of your game.